(CNN)If President Donald Trump loses his bid for reelection this fall, he needs to look no further than women to grasp the root of his demise.
The gender gap -- the difference between which party and which candidate men and women support -- is at or near historic highs in several new national polls.
Then there's this: In every presidential election since 1984, women have made up a majority of all voters -- usually between 52% and 53% of the total vote.
So, because math, Trump simply cannot afford to lose women to Biden by 19 points (or anything close to that number) and expect to win in 2020.
Unfortunately for the incumbent, the trend line of his numbers among women does not look good.
Those gender splits look remarkably similar to Monmouth's latest findings. Biden has a 19-point edge among women while Trump has just a 3-point margin among men.
Simply put: If these numbers hold, Trump will lose. And given all the water under the bridge between women and Trump, it will not be easy to convince any decent-sized chunk of female voters to cast a ballot for him.
The Point: Don't overthink the coming election. If the President loses women by north of 15 points, the math just doesn't add up for him.