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Monday night owls. Kuttner: The first brokered convention since 1952 appears headed our way

1952 Democratic Convention in Chicago
It took three ballots for the Democrats in convention in Chicago to select their presidential nominee in 1952.

Night Owls, a themed open thread, appears at Daily Kos seven days a week


At The American Prospect, Robert Kuttner writes—The First Brokered Democratic Convention Since 1952:

At least six candidates will likely be alive through Super Tuesday (March 3) and quite possibly beyond—Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, Biden, and Warren. This fragmentation well into the primary season is unprecedented. None of them will win more than a third of the total delegates.

Therefore, to be nominated on the first ballot, a breakout candidate would need to win more than 60 percent of the delegates in the remaining primaries after March. No way.

The convention that went beyond the first ballot was in 1952. Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson came in third on the first ballot, and it took three ballots for him to win.

What would a brokered convention look like in 2020? To open, we will have the anybody-but-Bernie faction facing the anybody-but-Bloomberg faction.

There will be a frantic quest for a unity candidate. That could be Warren if she can break out of single digits and revive her campaign. It’s hard to imagine any other current candidate being even grudgingly acceptable to Sanders forces, many of whom might bolt and even mount a write-in campaign.

Given Bloomberg’s well-earned troubles with blacks, women, and progressives, it’s also hard to imagine Bloomberg emerging as the unity candidate no matter how many billions he spends. One can even imagine the convention going outside the current field to Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown.

QUOTATION

"Power isn't control at all—power is strength, and giving that strength to others. A leader isn't someone who forces others to make him stronger; a leader is someone willing to give his strength to others that they may have the strength to stand on their own." 
          
~~Beth Revis, Across the Universe (2011)

TWEET OF THE DAY

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BLAST FROM THE PAST

At Daily Kos on this date in 2005—"Controversial" Negroponte Nominated to Be First Director of National Intelligence:

The current U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, John Negroponte, has been nominated to become the first Director of National Intelligence […]

Negroponte began his diplomatic career in 1960 and served in South Vietnam before becoming an aide to Henry Kissinger during negotiations in Paris with North Vietnam. From 1981 to 1985, he was U.S. ambassador to Honduras, where he helped carry out the Reagan administration's efforts, using the Contra rebels, to oust the Sandinista government in Nicaragua. He also served as ambassador to Mexico and the Philippines. After leaving the diplomatic service in 1997, Negroponte worked as a senior executive with the McGraw-Hill publishing company. In 2001, Bush appointed him as ambassador to the United Nations, a post he held until he was named ambassador to Iraq last year. A 1960 graduate of Yale University, the London-born son of a Greek shipping magnate speaks five languages.

Billmon provides "context":

"The DNI [National Directorate of Investigation] maintained a secret unit - the Honduran Anti-Communist Liberation Army (ELACH), a rightist paramilitary organization which conducted operations against Honduran leftists. According to DELETED, during the period ELACH operated (1980-1984), ELACH's operations included surveillance, kidnappings, interrogation under duress, and execution of prisoners who were Honduran revolutionaries."

On today’s Kagro in the Morning show: Greg Dworkin updates us on the state of the race. Caucus debacles & other unintended consequences of reform (and baseball cheating). Trump confesses, retaliates, and hires back a bunch of his previously-fired losers. Donald and Boris are fighting.

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