Mariners vs. Rangers prediction: Expect ton of runs in Texas

Two trends collide in Arlington, Texas on Monday night as the Seattle Mariners, who have not played any of their road total to the Under in 2020 (six Overs and a push), face a Texas Rangers bunch that came into the weekend tied with the Minnesota Twins with the best home Under rate in baseball.

The Mariners entered Sunday averaging more than two runs per game better on the road than at home. Seattle ranks 28th in the majors in home runs per game at home versus 15th in home runs per game on the road.

Seattle also is giving up more than a full run per game more on the road and leads the league in total runs given up. Starter Justin Dunn, a former Mets first-round pick, will look to improve that but has logged just 13 ²/₃ innings in six career starts with 16 walks and three home runs allowed and has posted a 6.43 ERA in 2020.

The Rangers’ Kyle Gibson has bounced back nicely from being demoted to the Minnesota Twins bullpen toward the end of the 2019 season. He has a 2.45 ERA in two starts to begin 2020.

Texas entered Sunday hitting .176 at home and .202 overall. A few of those games have been without Joey Gallo, though, and with the Mariners bullpen last in the AL in ERA, it should get the Rangers’ bats going and lead to a bunch of runs.

The Play: Mariners-Rangers total, Over 9 runs.

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